🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

179
503
Total Forecasters1448
Community Prediction2031-07-25 (2027-06-02 - 2041-09-15)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2199-12-25
...
...
...
...
2027-06-02 05:29
2031-07-25 02:37
2041-09-15 18:24
3.2%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Turing test
Information technology
Philosophy
Data analysis
Artificial general intelligence
Software engineering
Scuderia Ferrari

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